The exports riddle

The exports riddle

• India's merchandise exports sector appears to be on steroids, defying even the logic of an economic slowdown.
• At a little over $8 trillion, global exports in the first half of 2011 grew by 22 per cent
• India's exports of merchandise goods, estimated at $153 billion in the same period, grew by a staggering 44 per cent.
• India's exports gained fresh momentum during the third quarter of 2011, when the growth rate jumped to 54 per cent, proving wrong even the government's forecasts of an exports slowdown from August onwards.
• Economists are also at pains to explain the apparent disconnect between a tepid industrial growth rate witnessed during this period and the robustness of its merchandise exports.
• Industrial growth during the first five months of the current financial year is down to 5.6 per cent, from 8.7 per cent in the same period in 2010-11.
• So, what is fuelling India's exports growth?
• The Indian rupee depreciated by around ten per cent in the last few weeks.
• This might somewhat help exports remain buoyant in the months to come, but it does not explain the boom in the last nine months,
• Information trickling out from Udyog Bhavan also suggests that the exports boom in the last nine months has been largely driven by two sectors — engineering goods and petroleum products
• the emergence of the two top foreign exchange-earning categories in India's exports basket is not a sudden development.
• engineering exports recorded a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26 per cent, more than double the CAGR of 12 per cent for manufactured goods
• Petroleum product exports saw an even higher CAGR, 29 per cent
• he growth in petroleum product exports is easily explained by the recent commissioning of new refining capacity and the steady rise in petroleum product prices.
• The puzzle, however, is with engineering exports
• possible that the rise in engineering goods exports is largely fuelled by small- and medium-sector engineering companies
• The absence of an official explanation of the export numbers has fuelled speculative theories about dubious methods being used by India Inc to show an artificially exaggerated performance on the exports front
• Reports suggest there has been a sharp rise in exports to countries better known as tax havens, which are then used as a convenient route for recycling back unaccounted wealth stashed away there through over-invoicing and other questionable means.
• The government has also not dispelled doubts about the robustness of trade data, which critics allege suffer from double-counting of exports through special economic zones.
• Addressing data infirmities is a long-term challenge and the government must not shy away from it

Arab spring

Summary of protests by country

Country	Date started	Status of protests	Outcome	Death toll	Situation
Tunisia	18 December 2010	Revolution on 14 January 2011 Protests subdued since March 2011	• Ousting of President Ben Ali[53] and Prime MinisterGhannouchi  • Dissolution of the political police[54]  • Dissolution of the RCD, the former ruling party of Tunisia and liquidation of its assets[55]  • Release of political prisoners  • Elections to a Constituent Assembly on 23 October 2011[56]	223[57][58]	Revolution
Algeria	28 December 2010	Subdued since April 2011	• Lifting of the 19-year-old state of emergency[59][60]	8[61]	Major protests
Lebanon	12 January 2011	Limited	• a 40% increase in wages.[62]	17[63][64]	Protests and governmental changes
Jordan	14 January 2011	Ongoing	• King Abdullah II dismisses Prime Minister Rifai and his cabinet.[65]  • Months later, Abdullah dismisses Prime MinisterBakhit and his cabinet after complaints of slow progress on promised reforms.[66]	1[67][68]	Protests and governmental changes
Mauritania	17 January 2011	Subdued since May 2011		1[69]	Protests
Sudan	17 January 2011	Subdued since April 2011	• President Bashir announces he will not seek another term in 2015.[70]	1[71]	Protests
Oman	17 January 2011	Ended May 2011	• Economic concessions by SultanQaboos;[72][73][74][75]  • Dismissal of ministers;[76][77]  • Granting of lawmaking powers to Oman's elected legislature[78]	2–6[79][80][81]	Protests and governmental changes
Saudi Arabia	21 January 2011	Subdued since June 2011	• Economic concessions by King Abdullah;[82][83]  • Male-only municipal elections to be held 22 September 2011[84][85]  • King Abdullah announces women's approval to vote and take part in next Shura Council and municipal elections, in 2015.	2[86][87]	Protests
Egypt	25 January 2011	Revolution on 11 February 2011 Protests ongoing	• Ousting of President Mubarak and Prime MinistersNazif and Shafik;[88]  • Assumption of power by the Armed Forces;[89]  • Suspension of the Constitution, dissolution of theParliament;[90]  • Disbanding of State Security Investigations Service;[91]  • Dissolution of the NDP, the former ruling party of Egypt and transfer of its assets to the state[92]  • Prosecution of Mubarak, his family and his former ministers.[93][94][95]	875[96]	Revolution
Yemen	3 February 2011	Ongoing	• Resignation of MPs from the ruling party[97]  • On the 4 June, President Ali Abdullah Saleh is injured in an attack on his compound in the Yemeni capital Sana'a. Saleh has returned to Yemen on 23 September 2011.[98]  • Vice President Abd al-Rahman Mansur al-Haditakes over as Acting President on 4 June 2011.[99]	1,436-1,782[100][101]	Sustained civil disorder and governmental changes
Iraq	10 February 2011	Subdued since August 2011	• Prime Minister Maliki announces that he will not run for a 3rd term;[102]  • Resignation of provincial governors and local authorities[103]	35[104]	Major protests
Bahrain	14 February 2011	Ongoing	• Economic concessions by King Hamad;[105]  • Release of political prisoners;[106]  • Negotiations with Shia representatives;[107]  • GCC intervention at the request of the Government of Bahrain	36[108]	Sustained civil disorder and governmental changes
Libya	17 February 2011	Gaddafi killed on 20 October 2011, Civil war ended with Libya's Liberation on 23 October 2011.[109][110][111]	• Overthrow of Gaddafi; Gaddafi killed by NTC forces after fall of Sirte.  • Opposition forces seize control of all major Libyan cities, including the capital, Tripoli andBenghazi.[112][113][114]  • Formation of the National Transitional Council[115][116]  • UN-mandated NATO, Jordanian, Qatari, Swedish, and Emirati military intervention[117]  • Replacement of the green Libyan flag with the pre-Gaddafi tricolour.	25,000[118]–30,000[119]	Civil war
Kuwait	18 February 2011	Subdued since 31 March 2011, resumed in September. [120]	• Resignation of Cabinet[121]	0[122]	Protests and governmental changes
Morocco	20 February 2011	Subdued since July 2011	• Political concessions by King Mohammed VI;[123]  • Referendum on constitutional reforms;  • Respect to civil rights and an end to corruption[124]	1[125]	Protests and governmental changes
Western Sahara	26 February 2011	Subdued since May 2011		0	Protests
Syria	15 March 2011	Ongoing	• Release of some political prisoners;[126][127]  • End of Emergency Law;  • Dismissal of Provincial Governors;[128][129]  • Military action in Hama, Daraa and other areas;[130]  • Resignations from Parliament;[131]  • Resignation of the Government;[132]  • Small defections within Syrian army and clashes among soldiers;[133]  • Formation of The Free Officers  • Formation of The National Council of Syria[134]	3,045–4,300[135]	Sustained civil disorder and government changes
IsraeliBorders. Countries[show]	15 May 2011	Ended 5 June 2011		30–40[136][137]	Major protests
Total death toll:				30,430–37,140+(International estimate, ongoing)

 

 

Kashmir: why AFSPA must go

The Hindu : Opinion / Editorial : Kashmir: why AFSPA must go

• More than 23 years after the bombing that signalled the beginning of the murderous insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir, India's strategic establishment is demonstrating a curious unwillingness to grasp the fact that the war to restore peace has been won
• Ever since 2009, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has been advocating the withdrawal of the controversial Armed Forces Special Powers Act from parts of the State, as a first step towards an incremental rollback of the Army's presence in civilian-inhabited areas — a source of everyday friction with civilians.
• Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram has backed the idea, and a report by three government interlocutors has endorsed it
• New Delhi has proved unwilling to act, in part because of bitter resistance by the Indian Army
• Three spurious arguments are being used to justify the status quo.
• First, the Army contends that the situation across the Line of Control needs a robust military presence.
• But Mr. Abdullah isn't proposing removing a single soldier. His proposals would only lift AFSPA from two areas where the Army in any case has no security responsibilities. If things went well, troops would be freed up for deployment along the LoC, leaving the State and central police forces to deal with the degraded insurgency
• Secondly, it is claimed that without AFSPA, the Army will not be able to stage counter-terrorism operations in an emergency.
• Proponents of this argument forget that AFSPA did not have to be imposed to allow the Army to assist in the defence of Parliament House when it came under terrorist attack in 2001 — and that the Army staged many successful counter-terrorism operations in Jammu province before AFSPA was imposed there in 2001
• Finally, some argue that the AFSPA-free enclaves will be magnets for terrorists.
• This, too, makes little sense, since the Army is not present in the enclaves anyway — and it is improbable that terrorists have not established themselves there for fear of a mere law.

Australia to host global piracy talks next year

 

The Hindu : Opinion / Op-Ed : Australia to host global piracy talks next year

• Australia is to host international talks next year to tackle piracy, hoping to stop a crime that has seen hundreds of people taken hostage in this year
• the announcement at a forum on Indian Ocean Piracy held on the sidelines of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in the West Australian city of Perth.
• Piracy is now rife off the coast of Somalia and is spreading to other regions around Africa
• it had not only increased the costs of global trade but harmed some countries' fishing and tourism industries.
• deep concerns about the threat posed by piracy and armed robbery against ships in the Indian Ocean.
• The global conference to be held in Perth in 2012 will bring together senior officials and representatives from wider piracy-affected areas to explore ways to help Somalia and other countries address the drivers of piracy.
• The U.N. Security Council on Monday called on states around the world to criminalise piracy as a way of stepping up the campaign against record numbers of sea attacks.
• The move came after the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) said piracy had reached record levels with 352 attacks worldwide so far in 2011. Pirates have killed eight people and injured 41 so far this year, with 625 hostages taken worldwide, the bureau added.

The risks arising from Asia's water stress

The Hindu : Opinion / Op-Ed : The risks arising from Asia's water stress

• Water, the most vital of all resources, has emerged as a key issue that would determine if Asia is headed toward cooperation or competition.
• After all, the driest continent in the world is not Africa but Asia, where availability of freshwater is not even half the global annual average of 6,380 cubic metres per inhabitant.
• When the estimated reserves of rivers, lakes, and aquifers are added up, Asia has less than one-tenth of the waters of South America, Australia and New Zealand, not even one-fourth of North America, almost one-third of Europe, and moderately less than Africa per inhabitant.
• Yet the world's fastest-growing demand for water for food and industrial production and for municipal supply is in Asia, which now serves as the locomotive of the world economy.
• Today, the fastest-growing Asian economies are all at or near water-stressed conditions, including China, India, South Korea, Vietnam, and Indonesia
• But just three or four decades ago, these economies were relatively free of water stress.
• Water, the new arena of conflict
• Asia continues to draw on tomorrow's water to meet today's needs.
• Asia has one of the lowest levels of water efficiency and productivity in the world.
• it is no exaggeration to say that the water crisis threatens Asia's economic and political rise and its environmental sustainability.
• Water has also emerged as a source of increasing competition and discord within and between nations, spurring new tensions over shared basin resources and local resistance to governmental or corporate decisions to set up water-intensive industries.
• Water is a new arena in the Asian Great Game.
• In fact, water wars — in a political, diplomatic, or economic sense — are already being waged between riparian neighbours in several Asian regions, fuelling a cycle of bitter recrimination and fostering mistrust that impedes broader regional cooperation and integration. Without any shots being fired, rising costs continue to be exacted. The resources of transnational rivers, aquifers, and lakes have become the target of rival appropriation plans.
• Grand projects; crisis factors
• Several factors have contributed to the Asian water crisis, which is leading to river and aquifer degradation.
• One key factor responsible for the water crisis is that Asia is not only the largest and most-populous continent but also the fastest-developing continent. How the swift economic rise of Asia has brought water resources under increasing pressure can be seen from the fact that most Asian economies now are water-stressed.
• The exceptions are few: Bhutan, Burma, Papua New Guinea, Laos, Cambodia, Brunei, and Malaysia.
• Another factor is consumption growth, as a consequence of rising prosperity. The plain fact is that the average Asian is consuming more resources, including water, food, oil, and energy. The consumption growth is best illustrated by the changing diets, especially the greater intake of meat, whose production is notoriously water-intensive.
• A third factor is the role of irrigation in accentuating the Asian water stress. Asia more than doubled its total irrigated cropland just between 1960 and 2000.
• Once a continent of serious food shortages and recurrent famines, Asia opened the path to its dramatic economic rise by emerging as a net food exporter on the back of this unparalleled irrigation expansion.
• three sub-regions of Asia—South Asia, China, and Southeast Asia — by themselves account for about 50 per cent of the world's total irrigated land.
• It is thus hardly a surprise that Asia leads the world in the total volume of freshwater withdrawn for agriculture. Indeed, almost 74 per cent of the total global freshwater withdrawals for agriculture by volume are made in Asia alone.
• A fourth factor is that the fastest increase in water demand in Asia is now coming not from agriculture but from the industrial sector and urban households, in keeping with the fact that this continent has become the seat of the world's fastest industrialisation and urbanisation.
• A final factor linked to Asia's water stress is the large-scale impoundment of water resources through dams, barrages, reservoirs, and other human-made structures without factoring in long-term environmental considerations.
• upstream dams on rivers shared by two or more nations or provinces in an era of growing water stress often carry broader political and social implications, especially because they can affect water quality and quantity downstream.
• Dams can also alter fluvial ecosystems, damage biodiversity, and promote coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion.
• China, the world's biggest dam builder, alone has slightly more than half of the approximately 50,000 large dams on the planet.
• A way out
• To contain the security risks, Asian states must invest more in institutionalised cooperation on transboundary basin resources in order to underpin strategic stability, protect continued economic growth, and promote environmental sustainability.
• The harsh truth is that only four of the 57 transnational river basins in Asia have a treaty covering water sharing or other institutionalised cooperation. These are the Mekong, Ganges, Indus and Jordan river basins.
• The absence of a cooperative arrangement in most Asian transnational basins is making inter-country water competition a major security risk, increasing the likelihood of geopolitical tensions and instabilities.
• With its multitude of inter-country basins, Asia cannot continue to prosper without building political and technological partnerships to help stabilise inter-riparian relations, encourage greater water efficiency, promote environmental sustainability, take on practicable conservation strategies, and invest in clean-water technologies.
• If Asian states are to address their water challenges, they will need to embrace good practices on the strategic planning and management of water resources.

Russian spacecraft launched successfully

Russian spacecraft launched successfully

• Russian spacecraft Progress 45 was launched successfully in Kazakhstan on Sunday.
• ISS Progress 45, and the spacecraft is on its way to the International Space Station.
• this successful flight sets the stage for the next Soyuz launch, planned for mid-November.
• "The December Soyuz mission will restore the space station crew size to six and continue normal crew rotations."